See The Full Governorship Election Results Released Here

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The governorship election holds in 29 out of the 36 states today. Election will not hold in Bayelsa, Edo, Kogi, Anambra, Ondo, Osun and Ekiti states though the House of Assembly election will be conducted in all the 36 states.

In this analysis, Festus Owete projects how the battle would be won and lost by the candidates of the parties.


SOUTH EAST:

Abia: It is a three-horse race in the “God’s Own State”. The battle is clearly between the Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Okezie Ikpeazu, the All Progressives Grand Alliance’s candidate, Alex Otti, and the All Progressives Congress’ candidate, Chinenye Nyerere. Going by the result of the March 28 Presidential and National Assembly election, bookmakers will give outright victory to the PDP. However, the victory of APC’s Muhammadu Buhari is likely to create some upset. Regardless, that will not be enough to sway victory the APC way. In any case, Chikwendu Udensi of Progressives Peoples Alliance and Chris Akomas of United Progressives Party are certain to put up some good showing. Likely Winner: Okezie Ikpeazu of PDP

Imo: In neighboring Imo State, the incumbent, Rochas Okorocha, is being intensely challenged by the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Emeka Ihedioha, the candidate of the PDP. With the result of the Presidential election, in which President Goodluck Jonathan was massively voted for, it is safe to conclude that Mr. Ihedioha will carry the day. But political events are unpredictable. An hour in politics is enough to change the tide. Two factors will work in favour of Mr. Okorocha, who is flying the APC flag. They are the incumbency factor, his performance, especially in the area of free education, and the victory of his party at the centre. The recent visit of Mr. Buhari to Imo, where he was nicknamed “Okechukwu”, will surely boost Mr. Okorocha’s chances of returning for a second term. Likely Winner: Rochas Okorocha of APC

Enugu: The election in the “Coal State” is going to be a straight one between Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of the PDP and Okey Ezea of the APC. Both of them are from the Nsukka zone, which is favoured to produce the next state chief executive. While Mr. Ugwuanyi, a member of the House of Representatives is new in the race, Mr. Ezea has contested the gubernatorial position in the past. Even though the PDP flag-bearer appears to be in the lead going into today’s contest, his main challenger in the APC may be compensated for his resilience like Mr. Buhari at the federal level. Likely Winner: PDP’s Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi

Ebonyi: The race in Ebonyi is going to be an interesting one. Although, it is a PDP state, having been ruled by the party since 1999, there is the threat of the rampaging Labour Party taking over. The outgoing governor, Martin Elechi, a PDP member, is backing the LP candidate, Edward Nkwegu, against his deputy, Dave Umahi, who is flying the PDP flag. Although the PDP won in both governorship and national assembly elections, the Ebonyians may likely vote Mr. Nkwegu because of the respect Mr. Elechi still commands in the state. Even so, the combination of former governor Sam Egwu, and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Pius Anyim, and other PDP stalwarts, is certain to resist the governor’s threat. Senator Julius Ucha of the APC is also a frontrunner in the race although his party, like in some other South East states, is not popular in Ebonyi. Likely Winner: LP’s Edward Nkwegu
SOUTH SOUTH
Rivers: What the result of today’s election will reveal is the supremacy of political gladiators. Though the gubernatorial contest in this oil-rich state is between Dakuku Peterside of the APC and Nyesom Wike of the PDP, the real contest is between the outgoing governor, Chibuike Amaechi, and the Jonathans (President Jonathan and his wife, Patience). While the Jonathans are backing the PDP candidate, a former junior minister, Governor Amaechi is solidly behind the APC man, who is a serving member of the House of Representatives. Besides, in a way, it is going to be a battle of political supremacy between the upland area, where Mr. Wike comes from, and the riverine area where Mr. Peterside hails from. All this will largely define the contest despite PDP’s huge victory in the presidential and federal legislative elections on March 28. However, Tonye Princewill of the Labour Party, also from the riverine area, may have some strength but is not expected to win. He may end up being a candidate for the future. Likely Winner: Too close to call (Between Wike and Peterside).

Akwa Ibom: Like Rivers State, this state is also one to watch. The battle is between PDP’s Udom Emmanuel and APC’s Umana Umana. Mr. Emmanuel was thrown up by the outgoing governor, Godswill Akpabio, who might use the incumbency factor to see his protégé’s victory through. However, the support from some quarters for Mr. Umana is reportedly giving the PDP sleepless night. A former governor of the state, Victor Attah, a former Petroleum Minister, Don Etiebet and a former Vice Chairman of the PDP in the South-South zone, Edet Mkpubre, had recently adopted Mr. Umana as their candidate. There are other candidates for the election, including Senator Helen Esuene of LP and Sam Akpan of Accord party. They are, however, no frontrunners and could perhaps be described as jokers. Likely winner: Too close to call (Between Emmanuel and Umana).

Cross River: The race is essentially between Fidelis Ugbo of LP, Senator Ben Ayade of PDP and Odey Ochicha of APC. Although, Mr. Ayade has an edge over the others, the recent victory of Mr. Buhari in the presidential contest has boosted Mr. Ochicha’s chances of clinching the exalted seat. Likely winner: Ben Ayade of PDP

Delta: Victory here may be defined by ethnicity and Mr. Buhari’s presidential victory. It is a three-horse race between PDP’s Ifeanyi Okowa, a serving senator from the northern district, APC’s O’tega Emerhor and LP’s Great Ogboru. Both Emerhor and Ogboru are of the Urhobo ethnic group, which is the largest single ethnic group in state. The LP and APC candidates will split the Urhobo votes. The Urhobo in the central senatorial district had produced two former governors of the state, Felix Ibru and James Ibori. Although, the state is dominated by the PDP, which won the presidential election in the state on March 28, the victory of Mr. Buhari is certain to impact on the voting behaviour and pattern today. Likely Winner: Ifeanyi Okowa of PDP

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